The Flop Doesn't Care About Your Feelings
Raised preflop, so you c-bet? Not so fast. Whose hands the flop actually hits should decide your bet, and here's how to tell in ten seconds.
Confession time. For years my c-bet was a reflex. Raise preflop, get called, flop comes, chips go in. ? Bet. ? Also bet, because I raised, and the raiser bets. That's the rule, isn't it?
It isn't. The flop doesn't care that you raised. It only cares whose hands it hits.
Picture the two ranges
Say you open from the hijack and the big blind calls. Think about what each of you is holding.
You've got all the big stuff: A-A, K-K, A-K, A-Q. The big blind has a lot of those too, except they'd usually 3-bet the very best ones. What they have plenty of is suited connectors, small pairs and random two-gappers. Hands like , and .
Now deal the two flops again.
. This one is yours. You have every A-K, all the big aces, and more of the sets. The big blind is mostly holding air and wishing they'd folded. Bet, and bet often.
. This one is theirs. Straights, two pairs, sets of 6s and 7s, open-enders everywhere. Your pocket kings look gorgeous and feel like the nuts, but they're a long way from it.
The numbers, roughly
Here are rough figures for the raiser in position against the big blind. On ace-high flops the raiser holds about 60–70% of the equity, on low connected flops more like 50–58%. A rough guide:
- Ace-high, king-high and high paired flops: c-bet about 80% of the time or more.
- Middling and low flops like 5-4-2 or 8-7-6: somewhere around 40–80% of the time.
- The ugliest ones, like : about 30–60% of the time. Never zero, though.
Never zero matters. If you check every low flop, a thinking player stabs at all of them and you get run over.
And the size?
Another rule: if the board is wet and the turn can wreck your strong hands, go bigger, around 66% pot. If it's static (paired, or three of a suit already), go small, around 25% pot. On there isn't much for the next card to change, so a small bet does the job.
The ten-second test
Before you reach for chips, ask yourself one thing: "Does this flop hit me or them?" If it's you, bet small and often. If it's them, check more, and make it big when you do bet.
It's the cheapest leak fix you'll ever make. You can do it at the table between sips of a flat white.
